Sunday, March 20, 2022

Defeating War

 OK, I want to dream. I always say that if you think you have a simple solution to a problem, you haven't understood the problem. So I know that what I'm saying is just plain wrong, but I have to get it out there.

How do you stop a war? Probably not by winning - given enough fuel a war can last for generations. How do you put out a fire? Generally you stop a fire by removing the ingredients that make a fire happen - fuel, oxygen, heat.

So in a war, what can you take out of the equation without adding to the conflict? Money has been a big part of all wars, and sanctions target that aspect. Money provides hardware and logistics, but to a large part they have already been provisioned. We need to take something out of the battlefield that is vital to the war, but in a way that doesn't cause reprisals or intensification.

I'm talking about the war in Ukraine. Russia invaded but appears to have no clear goal, no clear idea of what success will look like. The justifications and misdirections are not believable, Russia will never be trusted under its current leadership. The Russian soldiers don't appear happy.

So we should offer European citizenship to any Russian soldier who becomes a prisoner by whatever means - surrender or being outnumbered. There are about 200,000 Russian soldiers, perhaps the offer would be taken up by 50%, the number is insignificant compared to the Ukrainian refugee crisis.

True, there is no such thing as European citizenship, the legal details are challenging. 

The offer is totally unfair - refugees aren't being offered such a good deal, nor are Ukrainian soldiers. But the deal should not be a whitewash - war crimes are not forgiven, no future promise of work. There could be a monetary reward for surrendering with valuable equipment or information. The identification and debriefing process would be slow.

There should be urgency in the offer - its not on the last day that you can change sides. However I have no idea if there is any way to communicate the deal to the Russian soldiers. Both Ukrainians and Russians would need to have common procedures on how to surrender and how to accept surrender.

The outcome would not be neat. Russian officers would be against it, particularly if they were indeed responsible for war crimes. It would cause mutiny and distrust. There would be mistakes during surrender operations. Friendly fire. 

Could it really end the war? Of course not. But I feel its worth trying.



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